How do the G7 countries compare on their net zero targets?

The G7 countries are some of the world’s largest economies and emitters of greenhouse gases. They have also pledged to lead the global transition to a net zero future, where the amount of emissions they produce is balanced by the amount they remove or offset. But how do they compare on their net zero targets, and what does this mean for their energy systems and societies?

What are the net zero targets of the G7 countries?

The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, plus the European Union. At the G7 Summit in June 2021, they committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, and to achieving an overwhelmingly decarbonized power system in the 2030s¹. They also called on all countries, especially major emitting economies, to join them in these goals as part of a global effort².

However, not all G7 countries have the same net zero target date. Germany still has a 2045 net zero date while the US, Canada, Italy, France, the UK and Japan all have a 2050 target³. The EU as a whole also aims to reach net zero by 2050, but some of its member states have earlier dates, such as Finland (2035) and Sweden (2045)⁴.

Why do the net zero targets matter?

The net zero targets matter because they signal the level of ambition and urgency that each country has to tackle the climate crisis. They also have implications for how quickly and deeply each country has to transform its energy system and economy to reduce its emissions and increase its removals or offsets.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), reaching net zero globally by 2050 requires an unprecedented global transformation of how energy is used, transported and produced⁵. The IEA has published a roadmap for achieving net zero by 2050, which outlines the key milestones and actions that are needed in the energy sector to reach this goal.

Some of the key milestones in the IEA roadmap include:

• Phasing out of unabated coal-fired power plants by 2030 in advanced economies and by 2040 globally.
• Increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation to 60% by 2030 and 88% by 2050.
• Electrifying 50% of end-use energy demand by 2050, up from 20% today.
• Expanding the use of low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic fuels to 19% of total energy supply by 2050, up from 5% today.
• Scaling up carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) to capture 7.6 gigatons of CO2 per year by 2050, up from 0.04 gigatons today.
• Enhancing natural and engineered sinks to remove 5.3 gigatons of CO2 per year by 2050, up from 2.6 gigatons today.

The IEA roadmap also shows that reaching net zero by 2050 would have significant benefits for the environment, health, security and economy. It would limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change. It would also improve air quality, reduce energy poverty, enhance energy security and diversity, and create millions of new jobs and boost economic growth.

How are the G7 countries progressing towards their net zero targets?

The G7 countries have made some progress towards their net zero targets, but they still face many challenges and opportunities to accelerate their transitions. The IEA has published a report on achieving net zero electricity sectors in G7 members, which provides an analysis and recommendations for each country to decarbonize their power systems.

The report finds that the G7 countries have increased their share of renewables in electricity generation from 18% in 2010 to 28% in 2020, and reduced their share of coal from 28% to 15% in the same period. However, the report also notes that the G7 countries need to increase their renewable capacity additions by 60% in the 2020s, and phase out all unabated coal plants by 2030, to achieve an overwhelmingly decarbonized power system in the 2030s.

The report also highlights the different challenges and opportunities that each G7 country faces in its electricity transition, such as:

• Canada has a low-carbon electricity system, with 82% of its generation coming from renewables and nuclear in 2020. However, it needs to address the regional disparities in its electricity mix, and increase its interconnections and flexibility to integrate more variable renewables.
• France has a low-carbon electricity system, with 90% of its generation coming from nuclear and renewables in 2020. However, it needs to diversify its electricity mix, and reduce its reliance on nuclear power, which poses challenges for system stability and public acceptance.
• Germany has a high share of renewables in its electricity system, with 46% of its generation coming from wind, solar, hydro and biomass in 2020. However, it needs to accelerate its coal phase-out, and increase its transmission and storage capacity to integrate more variable renewables.
• Italy has a high share of renewables in its electricity system, with 43% of its generation coming from wind, solar, hydro and geothermal in 2020. However, it needs to phase out its remaining coal plants, and enhance its interconnections and flexibility to balance its electricity supply and demand.
• Japan has a low share of renewables in its electricity system, with 18% of its generation coming from hydro, solar, wind and biomass in 2020. However, it has a high potential for offshore wind, solar and geothermal, and it needs to reform its electricity market and grid to enable more renewable deployment.
• The United Kingdom has a high share of renewables in its electricity system, with 37% of its generation coming from wind, solar, hydro and biomass in 2020. However, it needs to increase its offshore wind capacity, and develop its CCUS and hydrogen infrastructure to decarbonize its hard-to-abate sectors.
• The United States has a moderate share of renewables in its electricity system, with 20% of its generation coming from wind, solar, hydro and biomass in 2020. However, it has a large potential for solar and wind, and it needs to expand its transmission and distribution networks, and increase its flexibility and demand response to integrate more variable renewables.

The report also emphasizes the need for stronger collaboration and coordination among the G7 countries, and with other countries, to share best practices, align policies and standards, and mobilize finance and innovation for the electricity transition.

Conclusion

The G7 countries have a unique opportunity and responsibility to lead the world towards net zero emissions by 2050. They have set ambitious net zero targets, but they also need to take concrete and consistent actions to achieve them. Decarbonizing their electricity systems is a key step in this direction, as it would enable the electrification and decarbonization of other sectors, such as transport, industry and buildings. The G7 countries have made some progress in their electricity transitions, but they also face many challenges and opportunities to accelerate them. They need to increase their renewable capacity additions, phase out their coal plants, and enhance their system flexibility and interconnections. They also need to collaborate and coordinate with each other, and with other countries, to foster a global net zero electricity sector.